Sunderland vs Aston Villa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aston Villa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Aston Villa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Aston Villa meet at Stadium of Light in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Aston Villa are 0.70 PPG clear of Sunderland in recent Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 3–4 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aston Villa — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 47% versus Aston Villa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 43% | Aston Villa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 0.91 xG and Aston Villa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.673 / defence 0.964 | Aston Villa attack 0.980 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Sunderland's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Sunderland games / 47 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 30% | Draw 31% | Aston Villa 40%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Aston Villa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 20% | Aston Villa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 30% | Draw 31% | Aston Villa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sunderland 0.91 / Aston Villa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.673 / def 0.964 | Aston Villa attack 0.980 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Aston Villa xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Aston Villa kick off?
Sunderland vs Aston Villa is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadium of Light.
Where is Sunderland vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Aston Villa part of?
Sunderland vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 30% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sunderland and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Aston Villa in?
Sunderland (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sunderland's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Aston Villa's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.98x) against Sunderland's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.28
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.02
1.11
Aston Villa xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.11 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 14D 18L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 22W 11D 14L from 47 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Sunderland against 1.64 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.40 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 15W 14D 18L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 22W 11D 14L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Aston Villa away?
Sunderland's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.61 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 0, Aston Villa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 39%, Aston Villa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sunderland) and 48% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 35% of games; Aston Villa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Sunderland's recent matches and 56% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sunderland's recent games and 48% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 39% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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