Nottingham Forest vs Brentford – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brentford at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest and Brentford meet at City Ground in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nottingham Forest have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Brentford (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Brentford are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Nottingham Forest, 4 for Brentford and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Brentford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nottingham Forest half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Brentford half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 47% versus Brentford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 49% | Brentford 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 0.94 xG and Brentford 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.635 / defence 0.911 | Brentford attack 1.093 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Nottingham Forest games / 47 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 30% | Brentford 41%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Brentford 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brentford are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brentford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Brentford 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 30% | Brentford 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Nottingham Forest 0.94 / Brentford 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.635 / def 0.911 | Brentford attack 1.093 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Brentford (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Brentford xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Brentford kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at City Ground.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Brentford part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 29% chance of winning, Brentford a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Brentford?
Record (9 meetings): Nottingham Forest 3W | Draws 2 | Brentford 4W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Brentford in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Brentford (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.64) and Brentford's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (1.09x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.37
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.10
1.16
Brentford xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.3 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.16 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 12W 14D 21L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 17W 16D 14L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 1.43 for Brentford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.51 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Brentford in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 14D 21L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Brentford have gone 17W 16D 14L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Brentford away?
Brentford's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 0.91 PPG; Brentford away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
4
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Brentford?
From 9 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 3, Brentford have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 39%, Brentford 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Nottingham Forest) and 48% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 56% of games; Brentford in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 56% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 48% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Brentford tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Brentford in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →