Fulham 2-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Fulham welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Nottingham Forest's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fulham: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 2 for Nottingham Forest, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Fulham winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fulham and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 58% versus Nottingham Forest 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Nottingham Forest 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.42 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.895 / defence 1.017 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.023 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.537. Data: 62 Fulham games / 62 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 33% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 41%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Nottingham Forest 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Fulham dominate the H2H record, yet Nottingham Forest are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 80% | Nottingham Forest 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 33% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Fulham 1.42 / Nottingham Forest 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.895 / def 1.017 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.023 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.537 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Nottingham Forest xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Fulham 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 33% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fulham and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Record (7 meetings): Fulham 5W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 2W.
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.90x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.02
1.60
Nottingham Forest xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fulham and 1.60 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 17D 23L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 23W 14D 25L from 62 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.34 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (13W 7D 11L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 11W 6D 14L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.44 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 17D 23L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 14D 25L in their last 62 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Fulham's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.48 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Nottingham Forest runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fulham
1
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 7, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Nottingham Forest 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Fulham and 58% for Nottingham Forest. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games; Nottingham Forest in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 52% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fulham's matches and 58% of Nottingham Forest's.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.42 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.60 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 33% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 41%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Nottingham Forest 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.34 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.