Fulham 1-3 Liverpool – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fulham at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Liverpool.

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Analysis

Liverpool make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fulham have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Liverpool (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Liverpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Fulham, 2.00 for Liverpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Fulham, 2 for Liverpool and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Fulham 3–4 Liverpool — a Liverpool win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 65%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Liverpool 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 64% | Liverpool 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.40 xG and Liverpool 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.012 / defence 0.725 | Liverpool attack 1.185 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.521. Liverpool bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Fulham have a tight defence (rating 0.725), which is pulling Liverpool's projected output down. Data: built from Fulham's last 71 games and Liverpool's last 70.

Result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.61 | Draw 3.64 | Liverpool 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fulham 30% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 60% (last 10 away games).

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