Sheffield Utd 1-4 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Utd vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bramall Lane plays host to Sheffield Utd versus Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sheffield Utd have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at Bramall Lane, Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 0.70 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sheffield Utd lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–5 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 47% versus Burnley 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 53% | Burnley 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.49 xG and Burnley 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.769 / defence 1.730 | Burnley attack 0.763 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.500. Sheffield Utd's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Sheffield Utd games / 33 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 28% | Draw 23% | Burnley 48%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Burnley 2.08. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Utd 50% | Burnley 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 28% | Draw 23% | Burnley 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.49 / Burnley 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.769 / def 1.730 | Burnley attack 0.763 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Burnley (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Burnley xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Burnley kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 4 Burnley.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Burnley part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 28% chance of winning, Burnley a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Sheffield Utd 1W | Draws 0 | Burnley 2W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Burnley in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sheffield Utd's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.76x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (1.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
28%
3.51
23%
4.31
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
3.47
1.98
Burnley xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
14%
7.23
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
4%
25.38
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.98 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Utd's recent record stands at 31W 14D 33L from 78 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 24L across 78 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.51 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sheffield Utd have managed 17W 7D 14L from 38 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 14W 12D 12L across 38 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.53 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 31W 14D 33L in their last 78 games (1.37 PPG), while Burnley have gone 32W 22D 24L in their last 78 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Burnley away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.53 PPG; Burnley away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Burnley go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 5-0 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
5
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 1, Burnley have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Burnley 2-1 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 50%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sheffield Utd) and 53% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sheffield Utd's games and 60% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 53% of Burnley's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Burnley tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Burnley in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sheffield Utd 1-4 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.49 xG and Burnley 1.98 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.77 / defence 1.73 against Burnley attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 28% | Draw 23% | Burnley 48%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 53%, Burnley 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.37 PPG, Burnley 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.