Everton 1-2 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton and Wolves meet at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Everton (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wolves's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolves have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Everton against 0.70 for Wolves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Wolves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wolves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Wolves 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 49% | Wolves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.29 xG and Wolves 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.806 / defence 0.935 | Wolves attack 0.761 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.177. Data: 53 Everton games / 53 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 47% | Draw 30% | Wolves 24%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Wolves 4.17. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Wolves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 47% | Draw 30% | Wolves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Everton 1.29 / Wolves 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.806 / def 0.935 | Wolves attack 0.761 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Everton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Wolves xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Wolves kick off?
Everton vs Wolves kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Wolves?
Everton 1 - 2 Wolves.
Where is Everton vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Wolves part of?
Everton vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 47% chance of winning, Wolves a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Wolves?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Wolves 2W.
What form are Everton and Wolves in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Wolves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Wolves's attack (0.76x) against Everton's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.37
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Everton xG
Total xG
2.13
0.84
Wolves xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Everton and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Everton and 0.84 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Everton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 11D 28L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolves's form line: 17W 10D 26L from 53 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Everton against 1.15 for Wolves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (11W 4D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wolves have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.87 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Wolves in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 11D 28L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while Wolves have gone 17W 10D 26L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Wolves away?
Everton's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.42 PPG; Wolves away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 4-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
5
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Wolves?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Wolves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Everton 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Wolves?
Wolves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Wolves 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 31% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Wolves in 31%; Everton have failed to score in 31% of games; Wolves in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 35% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 31% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Wolves defy the odds to beat Everton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Everton 1-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.29 xG and Wolves 0.84 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wolves outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Wolves attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 47% | Draw 30% | Wolves 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Wolves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 49%, Wolves 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Wolves's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.00 PPG, Wolves 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.