Everton 0-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Everton welcome Aston Villa to Hill Dickinson Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Hill Dickinson Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aston Villa stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Aston Villa have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.90 PPG versus Aston Villa's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Aston Villa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 encounters against Everton's 0 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Aston Villa winning.
It is worth noting that Aston Villa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 37% | Aston Villa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.43 xG and Aston Villa 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.054 / defence 0.852 | Aston Villa attack 0.861 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.229. Data: 41 Everton games / 41 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 49% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 24%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Aston Villa 4.17. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Aston Villa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 49% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton 1.43 / Aston Villa 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.054 / def 0.852 | Aston Villa attack 0.861 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Everton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Aston Villa xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Aston Villa kick off?
Everton vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Aston Villa?
Everton 0 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Everton vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Aston Villa part of?
Everton vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 49% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Aston Villa?
Record (8 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 7W.
What form are Everton and Aston Villa in?
Everton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.05x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.71
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Everton xG
Total xG
2.33
0.90
Aston Villa xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Everton and 0.90 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Everton have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 13W 15D 13L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aston Villa's form line: 19W 10D 12L from 41 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Aston Villa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.32 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (6W 9D 5L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 8W 2D 10L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.41 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Aston Villa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 15D 13L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 19W 10D 12L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Aston Villa away?
Everton's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.35 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Everton or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Aston Villa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Aston Villa?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Aston Villa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Aston Villa 0-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 45%, Aston Villa 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Everton) and 65% (Aston Villa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 35% of games; Aston Villa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Everton's recent matches and 45% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Everton's matches and 65% of Aston Villa's.
Do Everton and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Aston Villa finished level at 0-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.43 xG and Aston Villa 0.90 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Aston Villa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Aston Villa attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 49% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Aston Villa 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aston Villa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.32 PPG, Aston Villa 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.