Crystal Palace 5-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crystal Palace face West Ham.

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Full Analysis

Selhurst Park plays host to Crystal Palace versus West Ham in Premier League (matchday 34). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Crystal Palace's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Crystal Palace's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

West Ham have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, West Ham have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Crystal Palace, 1.20 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Crystal Palace's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) — Crystal Palace have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, West Ham in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Crystal Palace, 1 for West Ham and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Crystal Palace 1–1 West Ham — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus West Ham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | West Ham 51%). Note also that West Ham surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Crystal Palace recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.89 xG and West Ham 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.939 / defence 1.145 | West Ham attack 1.080 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.525. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 70 games and West Ham's last 71.

Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 22% | West Ham 39%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.58 | Draw 4.46 | West Ham 2.58. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 39% to win, with the draw at 22%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Crystal Palace 39% and West Ham 39%, with the draw at 22%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crystal Palace's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 80% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 60% (last 10 away games).

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