Stockport County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 42 as Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 5W 3D 2L at Edgeley Park — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.30 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 49% versus AFC Wimbledon 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | AFC Wimbledon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.252 / defence 0.735 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.719 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.273. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 85 Stockport County games / 87 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 16%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Wimbledon 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 40% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Stockport County 1.49 / AFC Wimbledon 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.252 / def 0.735 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.719 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.67
AFC Wimbledon xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 56% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.25) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
56%
1.79
28%
3.53
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.16
0.67
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
4%
28.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.67 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 44W 25D 18L from 87 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 26W 29D 32L across 87 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 24W 14D 5L from 43 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 10W 16D 17L across 43 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.17 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 44W 25D 18L in their last 87 games (1.80 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 26W 29D 32L in their last 87 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Stockport County or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 5, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 40%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Stockport County) and 42% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 37%; AFC Wimbledon in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stockport County's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Stockport County's recent games and 42% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.67 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.25 / defence 0.73 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.72 / defence 0.83, drawn from 85/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 16%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, AFC Wimbledon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.