AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 41 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Harrogate Town to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.00 (Harrogate Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AFC Wimbledon, 0 for Harrogate Town and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 48% versus Harrogate Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Harrogate Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Harrogate Town 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.961 / defence 0.820 | Harrogate Town attack 0.884 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.291. Data: 86 AFC Wimbledon games / 85 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 45% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 26%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Harrogate Town 3.85. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Harrogate Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 45% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.32 / Harrogate Town 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.961 / def 0.820 | Harrogate Town attack 0.884 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Harrogate Town xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 45% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 2W | Draws 1 | Harrogate Town 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Harrogate Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.40
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Harrogate Town xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.94 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 85 games, going 25W 28D 32L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.25 PPG from 85 outings (27W 25D 33L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.21 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 15W 12D 15L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 1.31 points per game from 42 outings (14W 13D 15L).
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 25W 28D 32L in their last 85 games (1.21 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 27W 25D 33L in their last 85 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Harrogate Town away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.36 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.31 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AFC Wimbledon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when AFC Wimbledon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 50%, Harrogate Town 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AFC Wimbledon) and 50% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 29% of games; Harrogate Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 57% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 50% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Harrogate Town 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against Harrogate Town attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 45% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 26%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Harrogate Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.21 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.