Notts County 1-2 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Notts County at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Chesterfield fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Chesterfield at Meadow Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Notts County have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Notts County at Meadow Lane this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Meadow Lane.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chesterfield stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Chesterfield's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Notts County at 1.70 PPG versus Chesterfield's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Notts County, 0 for Chesterfield and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 49% versus Chesterfield 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 43% | Chesterfield 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.32 xG and Chesterfield 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.012 / defence 0.907 | Chesterfield attack 1.012 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.086. Data: 82 Notts County games / 35 Chesterfield games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 44% | Draw 28% | Chesterfield 28%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Chesterfield 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 50% | Chesterfield 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 44% | Draw 28% | Chesterfield 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Notts County 1.32 / Chesterfield 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.012 / def 0.907 | Chesterfield attack 1.012 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Notts County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Chesterfield xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Chesterfield kick off?
Notts County vs Chesterfield kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Notts County 1 - 2 Chesterfield.
Where is Notts County vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Chesterfield part of?
Notts County vs Chesterfield is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 44% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Notts County and Chesterfield will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Chesterfield?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 1 | Chesterfield 0W.
What form are Notts County and Chesterfield in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.01x the league average against Chesterfield's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.60
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.31
1.00
Chesterfield xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Notts County and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Notts County and 1.00 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County's recent record stands at 17W 9D 9L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 13L across 35 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.71 PPG, Chesterfield on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chesterfield's away record stands at 5W 2D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.60 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 35 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Chesterfield away?
Notts County's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.82 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Notts County or Chesterfield been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Chesterfield in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and Chesterfield runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Notts County's record when hosting Chesterfield specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
2
Draws
3
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Chesterfield?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Chesterfield have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Chesterfield last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Notts County 0-0 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Chesterfield?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 41%, Chesterfield 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Notts County) and 53% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Chesterfield in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Chesterfield?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Notts County's recent matches and 35% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Chesterfield usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Notts County's recent games and 53% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Chesterfield tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chesterfield in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.32 xG and Chesterfield 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Chesterfield attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 82/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 44% | Draw 28% | Chesterfield 28%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 43%, Chesterfield 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Chesterfield's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.71 PPG, Chesterfield 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.