Notts County 1-1 Bromley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Bromley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bromley make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League Two, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Notts County's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Meadow Lane this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Meadow Lane. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bromley have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bromley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bromley away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Notts County lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 4–2 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Notts County — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bromley — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 44% versus Bromley 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 44% | Bromley 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.37 xG and Bromley 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.056 / defence 0.780 | Bromley attack 1.060 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.166. Notts County's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Notts County games / 25 Bromley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 30% | Bromley 25%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Bromley 4.00. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 20% | Bromley 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Bromley | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 30% | Bromley 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Notts County 1.37 / Bromley 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.056 / def 0.780 | Bromley attack 1.060 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Notts County (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bromley xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Bromley kick off?
Notts County vs Bromley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Bromley?
Notts County 1 - 1 Bromley.
Where is Notts County vs Bromley being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Bromley part of?
Notts County vs Bromley is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Bromley?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 45% chance of winning, Bromley a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Bromley?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Notts County and Bromley will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Bromley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bromley?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Bromley 0W.
What form are Notts County and Bromley in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Bromley (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.06) and Bromley's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bromley's attack (1.06x) against Notts County's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 71/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.34
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.34
0.96
Bromley xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Notts County and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Notts County and 0.96 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Bromley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 12W 7D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bromley's form line: 8W 10D 7L from 25 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Bromley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Notts County against 1.36 for Bromley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Notts County have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
On the road, Bromley have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bromley are on 1.40 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bromley in 64%.
Defensively: Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Bromley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Bromley in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 12W 7D 6L in their last 25 games (1.72 PPG), while Bromley have gone 8W 10D 7L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Bromley away?
Notts County's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.82 PPG; Bromley away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Notts County or Bromley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bromley in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bromley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Notts County
3
Draws
0
Bromley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bromley?
From 4 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Bromley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Bromley last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Bromley 1-1 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Bromley?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 27%, Bromley 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Notts County) and 46% (Bromley).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Bromley in 36%; Notts County have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Bromley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Bromley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Notts County's recent matches and 54% of Bromley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Bromley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Notts County's recent games and 46% of Bromley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Bromley tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bromley in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County and Bromley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County and Bromley finished level at 1-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.37 xG and Bromley 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.06 / defence 0.78 against Bromley attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 30% | Bromley 25%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 44%, Bromley 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bromley's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.72 PPG, Bromley 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.