Grimsby 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grimsby vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Stevenage travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grimsby stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grimsby at Blundell Park this season: 1W 4D 3L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Stevenage's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Grimsby's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Grimsby register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Stevenage in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Grimsby in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 53% versus Stevenage 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 41% | Stevenage 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 0.97 xG and Stevenage 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.824 / defence 1.159 | Stevenage attack 0.993 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.040. Data: 17 Grimsby games / 64 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 29% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 41%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Grimsby 62% | Stevenage 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 29% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Grimsby 0.97 / Stevenage 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.824 / def 1.159 | Stevenage attack 0.993 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Stevenage xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Stevenage kick off?
Grimsby vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Stevenage?
Grimsby 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Grimsby vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Stevenage part of?
Grimsby vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 29% chance of winning, Stevenage a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Grimsby and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grimsby and Stevenage in?
Grimsby (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grimsby's attack at 0.82x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
29%
3.40
30%
3.36
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.17
1.20
Stevenage xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.20 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Grimsby have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 11W 3D 3L from 17 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grimsby.
Venue Form
On home soil, Grimsby have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L). That actually lags their 1.35 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grimsby are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.35 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Stevenage in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 11W 3D 3L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 0.88 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Grimsby or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stevenage in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Grimsby
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 0, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Stevenage 2-0 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 62%, Stevenage 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Grimsby) and 38% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Stevenage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Grimsby's games and 62% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grimsby vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Grimsby's recent games and 38% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Stevenage tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grimsby and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 19, as Grimsby and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 0.97 xG and Stevenage 1.20 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Stevenage attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 29% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 41%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 41%, Stevenage 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.