Grimsby 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grimsby at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grimsby vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gillingham make the trip to Blundell Park to face Grimsby in League Two, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Grimsby's overall League Two record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grimsby at Blundell Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Gillingham have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Grimsby's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grimsby lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Grimsby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grimsby — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 59% versus Gillingham 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 54% | Gillingham 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.38 xG and Gillingham 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 1.131 / defence 1.223 | Gillingham attack 0.758 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.151. Data: 73 Grimsby games / 71 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 43% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 28%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Gillingham 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grimsby are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grimsby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Grimsby 50% | Gillingham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 43% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Grimsby 1.38 / Gillingham 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 1.131 / def 1.223 | Gillingham attack 0.758 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gillingham xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Gillingham kick off?
Grimsby vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Grimsby 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Grimsby vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Gillingham part of?
Grimsby vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 43% chance of winning, Gillingham a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Grimsby and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Gillingham?
Record (5 meetings): Grimsby 2W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 1W.
What form are Grimsby and Gillingham in?
Grimsby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (1.13) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.76x) against Grimsby's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 73/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.45
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Gillingham xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.07 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Grimsby have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 23W 17D 31L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham's form line: 27W 14D 30L from 71 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Grimsby against 1.34 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grimsby have posted 1.43 PPG from 35 outings (15W 5D 15L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 12W 4D 19L from 35 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Grimsby are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.97 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 23W 17D 31L in their last 71 games (1.21 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 27W 14D 30L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Gillingham away?
Grimsby's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.43 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Grimsby or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gillingham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Grimsby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grimsby won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grimsby have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Grimsby
3
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 4, Gillingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Gillingham?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 66%, Gillingham 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Grimsby) and 31% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 31%; Gillingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Grimsby's recent matches and 37% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grimsby vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Grimsby's recent games and 31% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Gillingham tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grimsby and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 29, as Grimsby and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.38 xG and Gillingham 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 73/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 43% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 28%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 54%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.21 PPG, Gillingham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.