Cheltenham 1-1 Bromley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bromley at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Bromley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cheltenham and Bromley meet at EV Charger Points Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cheltenham's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham's home record at EV Charger Points Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bromley have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bromley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bromley have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Cheltenham's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Cheltenham — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Bromley — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cheltenham 69% and Bromley 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 54% | Bromley 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.01 xG and Bromley 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.873 / defence 1.208 | Bromley attack 0.703 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.260. Data: 14 Cheltenham games / 13 Bromley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 33% | Draw 30% | Bromley 36%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Bromley 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bromley are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cheltenham (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bromley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cheltenham 60% | Bromley 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Bromley | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 33% | Draw 30% | Bromley 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Cheltenham 1.01 / Bromley 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.873 / def 1.208 | Bromley attack 0.703 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Bromley (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bromley xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Bromley kick off?
Cheltenham vs Bromley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Bromley?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Bromley.
Where is Cheltenham vs Bromley being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Bromley part of?
Cheltenham vs Bromley is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Bromley?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 33% chance of winning, Bromley a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bromley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Bromley?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cheltenham and Bromley will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Bromley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Bromley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Bromley in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Bromley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cheltenham vs Bromley?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Bromley's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Bromley's attack (0.70x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bromley Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.32
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.08
1.07
Bromley xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.07 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Bromley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 2D 7L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bromley sit at 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bromley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.08 for Bromley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cheltenham's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bromley have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Bromley are on 1.15 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bromley in 62%.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Bromley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Bromley in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Bromley have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Bromley away?
Bromley's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.17 PPG; Bromley away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Bromley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bromley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bromley won 3-0 on 3 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bromley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Bromley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Bromley?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Bromley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Bromley last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bromley 1-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Bromley?
Bromley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bromley see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 50%, Bromley 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cheltenham and 17% for Bromley.
On the defensive side: Bromley in 50%; Cheltenham have failed to score in 33% of games; Bromley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Bromley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Bromley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 33% of Bromley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Bromley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cheltenham's recent games and 17% of Bromley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Bromley tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bromley in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Bromley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham and Bromley finished level at 1-1 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.01 xG and Bromley 1.07 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Bromley attack 0.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 33% | Draw 30% | Bromley 36%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 54%, Bromley 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Bromley's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.08 PPG, Bromley 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.