Carlisle 1-3 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brunton Park plays host to Carlisle versus Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Carlisle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Carlisle's home record at Brunton Park: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brunton Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Port Vale have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Port Vale have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Carlisle, 1.10 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Carlisle 0W, Port Vale 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Carlisle half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 35% versus Port Vale 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 42% | Port Vale 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.72 xG and Port Vale 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.634 / defence 1.014 | Port Vale attack 1.007 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.111. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Carlisle games / 26 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 21% | Draw 36% | Port Vale 43%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | Port Vale 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 10% | Port Vale 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 21% | Draw 36% | Port Vale 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Carlisle 0.72 / Port Vale 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.634 / def 1.014 | Port Vale attack 1.007 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Port Vale xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Port Vale kick off?
Carlisle vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Carlisle 1 - 3 Port Vale.
Where is Carlisle vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Port Vale part of?
Carlisle vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 21% chance of winning, Port Vale a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Carlisle and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 1 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Carlisle and Port Vale in?
Carlisle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Port Vale (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Carlisle's attack rating (0.63) and Port Vale's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (1.01x) against Carlisle's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 28/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
21%
4.79
36%
2.75
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.86
1.13
Port Vale xG
4.79
21%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 17.7 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.13 for Port Vale, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carlisle's recent record stands at 5W 8D 13L from 26 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 8L across 26 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 5W 3D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.46 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.17 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Port Vale in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carlisle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Carlisle
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 25%, Port Vale 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Carlisle and 50% for Port Vale.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Carlisle's recent matches and 67% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Carlisle's recent games and 50% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Port Vale tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Carlisle 1-3 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.72 xG and Port Vale 1.13 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Port Vale outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.63 / defence 1.01 against Port Vale attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 21% | Draw 36% | Port Vale 43%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 42%, Port Vale 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Carlisle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.