AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Bromley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Bromley travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bromley stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bromley's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AFC Wimbledon are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 1 for Bromley and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Bromley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bromley trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 30% versus Bromley 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Wimbledon 36% | Bromley 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.64 xG and Bromley 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.150 / defence 0.658 | Bromley attack 1.109 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.078. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.658 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 78 AFC Wimbledon games / 33 Bromley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 25% | Bromley 17%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Bromley 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Bromley 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 25% | Bromley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.64 / Bromley 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.150 / def 0.658 | Bromley attack 1.109 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bromley xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Bromley.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 57% chance of winning, Bromley a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Bromley will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bromley?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Bromley 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bromley in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Bromley (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (1.15) and Bromley's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bromley's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.94
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.42
0.79
Bromley xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
29.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.79 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 17W 9D 7L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Bromley's form line: 11W 12D 10L from 33 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, AFC Wimbledon are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bromley.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — AFC Wimbledon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bromley have gone 6W 6D 4L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Bromley are on 1.30 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Bromley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bromley in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 17W 9D 7L in their last 33 games (1.82 PPG), while Bromley have gone 11W 12D 10L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Bromley away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 2.25 PPG; Bromley away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Bromley been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Bromley in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Bromley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bromley?
From 3 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Bromley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Bromley last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Bromley 0-2 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Bromley?
Bromley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 25%, Bromley 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AFC Wimbledon) and 44% (Bromley).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Bromley in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Bromley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Bromley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 50% of Bromley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 44% of Bromley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Bromley tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bromley in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bromley defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bromley beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.64 xG and Bromley 0.79 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 / defence 0.66 against Bromley attack 1.11 / defence 1.11, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 25% | Bromley 17%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Bromley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Bromley 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bromley's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Bromley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Bromley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.