Wigan 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Burton Albion at DW Stadium in League One (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wigan — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Wigan have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Wigan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Wigan have won 1, Burton Albion 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Wigan 1–2 Burton Albion — a Burton Albion win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 33 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 55% versus Burton Albion 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 40% | Burton Albion 46%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Wigan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.19 xG and Burton Albion 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.897 / defence 0.807 | Burton Albion attack 0.737 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Wigan's last 39 games and Burton Albion's last 85.
Result probabilities: Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 22%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.10 | Draw 3.27 | Burton Albion 4.57. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Burton Albion's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wigan's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 30% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Wigan 1.19 / Burton Albion 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.897 / def 0.807 | Burton Albion attack 0.737 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Wigan (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Burton Albion xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Burton Albion kick off?
Wigan vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Wigan 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Wigan vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Burton Albion part of?
Wigan vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 48% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Wigan and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Wigan vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.90x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 39 games and Burton Albion's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.27
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.89
0.70
Burton Albion xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Wigan and 0.70 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan come into this having played 85 games, going 27W 22D 36L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.12 PPG from 85 outings (25W 20D 40L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.21 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wigan's home form reads 17W 9D 17L across their last 43 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 43 away games (10W 9D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.04 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Wigan (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 27W 22D 36L in their last 85 games (1.21 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 40L in their last 85 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Burton Albion away?
Wigan's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.40 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 29 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Wigan's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wigan
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 December 2025: Burton Albion 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 46%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Wigan) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Wigan's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Wigan's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Wigan's recent matches and 63% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Wigan and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.19 xG and Burton Albion 0.70 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Burton Albion attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 22%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 40%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.21 PPG, Burton Albion 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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