Exeter City 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Charlton at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Exeter City — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Exeter City have posted 4W 4D 2L at St James Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Exeter City at 1.40 PPG versus Charlton's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Charlton have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Exeter City.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 1–4 with Charlton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (85 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (85 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 44% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 46% | Charlton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.05 xG and Charlton 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.722 / defence 0.919 | Charlton attack 1.086 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Exeter City's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 85 Exeter City games / 85 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 32% | Draw 29% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Exeter City 40% | Charlton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 32% | Draw 29% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Exeter City 1.05 / Charlton 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.722 / def 0.919 | Charlton attack 1.086 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Charlton kick off?
Exeter City vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Charlton?
Exeter City 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Exeter City vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Charlton part of?
Exeter City vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 32% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Exeter City and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Charlton?
Record (3 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Exeter City and Charlton in?
Exeter City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.72) and Charlton's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.47
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.23
1.18
Charlton xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.18 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Exeter City's recent record stands at 28W 19D 38L from 85 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 26W 29D 30L across 85 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.21 PPG, Charlton on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 16W 12D 15L from 43 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 10W 17D 16L across 43 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Exeter City are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.49 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Charlton in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 28W 19D 38L in their last 85 games (1.21 PPG), while Charlton have gone 26W 29D 30L in their last 85 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Charlton away?
Exeter City's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.40 PPG; Charlton away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2023, when Charlton won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Exeter City's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Exeter City
1
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 1, Charlton have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Charlton 3-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 44%, Charlton 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Exeter City) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 40% of games; Charlton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 63% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Exeter City's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Charlton tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Charlton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Exeter City and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 41, as Exeter City and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.05 xG and Charlton 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Charlton attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 32% | Draw 29% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 46%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.21 PPG, Charlton 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.