Portsmouth 1-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wigan make the trip to Fratton Park to face Portsmouth in League One (matchday 45). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Portsmouth's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Portsmouth have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wigan have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Portsmouth's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Wigan's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Portsmouth's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Portsmouth's games and 80% of Wigan's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Wigan and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Portsmouth 2–1 Wigan — a Portsmouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 35 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 53% versus Wigan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 48% | Wigan 41%). Note also that Wigan surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Portsmouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 2.53 xG and Wigan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.443 / defence 1.091 | Wigan attack 1.075 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.191. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.443 — their 2.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Wigan's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Portsmouth's projected output up. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 90 games and Wigan's last 44.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 62% | Draw 18% | Wigan 20%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.61 | Draw 5.52 | Wigan 5.06. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.53 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Portsmouth's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 90% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 62% | Draw 18% | Wigan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Portsmouth 2.53 / Wigan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.443 / def 1.091 | Wigan attack 1.075 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Wigan xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Wigan kick off?
Portsmouth vs Wigan kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Wigan?
Portsmouth 1 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Portsmouth vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Wigan part of?
Portsmouth vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 62% chance of winning, Wigan a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Portsmouth and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.44x the league average against Wigan's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (1.07x) against Portsmouth's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 90 games and Wigan's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
62%
1.61
18%
5.52
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
3.93
1.40
Wigan xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
8%
12.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
2%
63.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.40 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 90 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 44W 32D 14L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 28W 25D 37L from 90 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wigan.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 45 home games (24W 16D 5L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 11W 14D 20L from their last 45 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Wigan in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 44W 32D 14L in their last 90 games (1.82 PPG), while Wigan have gone 28W 25D 37L in their last 90 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Wigan away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.96 PPG; Wigan away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Wigan in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Portsmouth and Wigan, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
0
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Wigan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 2, Wigan have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Portsmouth 1-2 Wigan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 62%, Wigan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Portsmouth) and 47% (Wigan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Wigan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Portsmouth's games and 67% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Portsmouth and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Portsmouth's recent games and 47% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 84% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 2.53 xG and Wigan 1.40 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.44 / defence 1.09 against Wigan attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 62% | Draw 18% | Wigan 20%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Wigan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 48%, Wigan 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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