Cheltenham 1-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Lincoln (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cheltenham face Lincoln.

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Fixture Analysis

Cheltenham welcome Lincoln to Completely-Suzuki Stadium in League One (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cheltenham have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cheltenham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lincoln — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Lincoln have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Lincoln's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Cheltenham's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Cheltenham's games and 60% of Lincoln's (from Cheltenham's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Lincoln have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Cheltenham.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Cheltenham 0–2 Lincoln — a Lincoln win.

Lincoln have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

Cheltenham in-play tendencies (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Lincoln in-play tendencies (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 33 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 42% versus Lincoln 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cheltenham 45% | Lincoln 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.82 xG and Lincoln 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.843 / defence 1.282 | Lincoln attack 1.128 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.191. Lincoln bring a tight defence (rating 0.741, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cheltenham's projected output down. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lincoln's projected output up. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 89 games and Lincoln's last 90.

Result probabilities: Cheltenham 18% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 59%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 5.70 | Draw 4.24 | Lincoln 1.70. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 70% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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