Peterborough vs Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 36%, yet in-form Notts County provide a compelling counter-argument — this Peterborough vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to ABAX Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 2W 4D 4L at ABAX Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Notts County have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Notts County have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Notts County are 0.80 PPG clear of Peterborough in recent League One fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Notts County — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 56% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 54% | Notts County 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.20 xG and Notts County 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.822 / defence 1.022 | Notts County attack 0.800 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. Data: 53 Peterborough games / 7 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 36% | Draw 33% | Notts County 31%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Notts County 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Notts County (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 60% | Notts County 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: ABAX Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 36% | Draw 33% | Notts County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Peterborough 1.20 / Notts County 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.822 / def 1.022 | Notts County attack 0.800 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Notts County xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Notts County kick off?
Peterborough vs Notts County kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at ABAX Stadium.
Where is Peterborough vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at ABAX Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Notts County part of?
Peterborough vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 36% chance of winning, Notts County a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Peterborough and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Notts County in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Notts County (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.82x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.80x) against Peterborough's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.05
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.29
1.09
Notts County xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.09 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough's recent record stands at 16W 10D 28L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 15L across 54 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 9W 7D 11L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 12W 6D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.54 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Notts County in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 16W 10D 28L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 12D 15L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.26 PPG; Notts County away: 1.56 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 56%, Notts County 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 48% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 48% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Notts County tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Notts County in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Peterborough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Notts County finished level at 0-0 at ABAX Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.20 xG and Notts County 1.09 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Notts County landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Notts County attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 36% | Draw 33% | Notts County 31%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 54%, Notts County 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Notts County's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.