Derby 1-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Portsmouth meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Portsmouth have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Portsmouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Derby against 1.80 for Portsmouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Portsmouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 48% | Portsmouth 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.93 xG and Portsmouth 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.995 / defence 0.996 | Portsmouth attack 1.077 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.128. Portsmouth's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Derby games / 52 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 42%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Portsmouth 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Portsmouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Derby 0.93 / Portsmouth 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.995 / def 0.996 | Portsmouth attack 1.077 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Portsmouth xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Portsmouth kick off?
Derby vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Portsmouth?
Derby 1 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Derby vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Portsmouth part of?
Derby vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 28% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derby and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Portsmouth?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 2 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Derby and Portsmouth in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.99x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.08x) against Derby's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.42
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Derby xG
Total xG
2.14
1.21
Portsmouth xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Derby and 1.21 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 13D 15L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.58 PPG from 52 outings (20W 22D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Derby against 1.58 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 13W 6D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Portsmouth in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Portsmouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 20W 22D 10L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Portsmouth away?
Derby's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.80 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Derby or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Derby
6
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Portsmouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Portsmouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Portsmouth 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Portsmouth?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, Portsmouth 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 36% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Portsmouth in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Derby's recent matches and 44% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 36% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Derby and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.93 xG and Portsmouth 1.21 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Portsmouth attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 28% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 42%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 48%, Portsmouth 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Portsmouth's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.63 PPG, Portsmouth 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.