Bolton 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 6 as Bolton welcome Derby to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bolton) versus 1.70 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bolton, 1 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Derby trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 37% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 37% | Derby 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.41 xG and Derby 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.195 / defence 1.086 | Derby attack 1.472 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.097. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Bolton games / 51 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 31% | Draw 23% | Derby 46%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 2.17. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bolton 40% | Derby 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 31% | Draw 23% | Derby 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Bolton 1.41 / Derby 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.195 / def 1.086 | Derby attack 1.472 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Derby (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Derby xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Derby kick off?
Bolton vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Derby?
Bolton 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Bolton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Derby part of?
Bolton vs Derby is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 31% chance of winning, Derby a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bolton and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Bolton 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Bolton and Derby in?
Bolton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bolton's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
31%
3.23
23%
4.30
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.16
1.75
Derby xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bolton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bolton and 1.75 for Derby, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 13D 13L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 24W 13D 14L from 51 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.73 PPG, Derby on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (14W 6D 5L).
On the road, Derby have gone 10W 7D 8L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.51 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Derby in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Derby have gone 24W 13D 14L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Derby away?
Bolton's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.92 PPG; Derby away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Bolton or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 1, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 32%, Derby 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bolton) and 44% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Derby in 32%; Bolton have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Bolton's recent matches and 48% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bolton's recent games and 44% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Derby tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Derby in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Derby 2-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.41 xG and Derby 1.75 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against Derby attack 1.47 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 31% | Draw 23% | Derby 46%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 37%, Derby 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.73 PPG, Derby 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.