Charlton 1-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Crawley Town at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 0.90 PPG versus Crawley Town's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Crawley Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.46 xG and Crawley Town 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.988 / defence 0.969 | Crawley Town attack 0.568 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.123. Data: 62 Charlton games / 17 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 58% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Crawley Town's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 70% | Crawley Town 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 58% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 35% | xG Charlton 1.46 / Crawley Town 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.988 / def 0.969 | Crawley Town attack 0.568 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Charlton (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Crawley Town xG
35%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Crawley Town kick off?
Charlton vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 December 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Crawley Town?
Charlton 1 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Charlton vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Crawley Town part of?
Charlton vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 58% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Charlton and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Crawley Town in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.99x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
58%
1.74
27%
3.75
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.07
0.62
Crawley Town xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
4%
27.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Charlton and 0.62 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton's recent record stands at 17W 24D 21L from 62 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 26W 10D 26L across 62 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.21 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 11W 11D 8L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 12W 5D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 17W 24D 21L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 26W 10D 26L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Crawley Town away?
Charlton's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.47 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Crawley Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Crawley Town 0-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 70%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Charlton) and 53% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Charlton's games and 50% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Charlton's matches and 53% of Crawley Town's.
Do Charlton and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.46 xG and Crawley Town 0.62 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Crawley Town attack 0.57 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 58% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 16%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.21 PPG, Crawley Town 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.