Charlton 1-2 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charlton face Blackpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Charlton welcome Blackpool to The Valley in League One (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Charlton's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 6D 0L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Blackpool stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Blackpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.70 (Blackpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 0 for Blackpool and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Charlton 1–1 Blackpool — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Blackpool in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 69% versus Blackpool 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Blackpool 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.73 xG and Blackpool 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.007 / defence 0.845 | Blackpool attack 1.160 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.193. Blackpool's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 52 games and Blackpool's last 51.
Result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 25% | Blackpool 25%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.00 | Draw 4.07 | Blackpool 3.92. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 60% (last 10 home games) | Blackpool 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, matchday 7 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 25% | Blackpool 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Charlton 1.73 / Blackpool 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.007 / def 0.845 | Blackpool attack 1.160 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Charlton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Blackpool xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Blackpool FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Blackpool kick off?
Charlton vs Blackpool kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Blackpool?
Charlton 1 - 2 Blackpool.
Where is Charlton vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Blackpool part of?
Charlton vs Blackpool is a League One fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 50% chance of winning, Blackpool a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charlton and Blackpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Blackpool's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Blackpool's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 52 games and Blackpool's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.07
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.90
1.17
Blackpool xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
5%
22.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Blackpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Charlton and 1.17 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 14W 21D 16L from 51 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 17L across 51 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.24 PPG, Blackpool on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 9W 9D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackpool's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Blackpool in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
Charlton (Home) vs Blackpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
❓ Charlton vs Blackpool Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 14W 21D 16L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Blackpool away?
Charlton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.44 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Charlton or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Blackpool in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Blackpool specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Charlton
3
Draws
1
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Blackpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Blackpool?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 0, Blackpool have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Blackpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Blackpool 2-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 72%, Blackpool 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charlton) and 44% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Blackpool in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Blackpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Blackpool matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Charlton's recent matches and 36% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Blackpool matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Charlton's recent games and 44% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Blackpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Charlton's recent matches and 80% of Blackpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackpool defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.73 xG and Blackpool 1.17 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Blackpool outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Blackpool attack 1.16 / defence 1.30, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 50% | Draw 25% | Blackpool 25%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Blackpool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Blackpool 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Blackpool's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.24 PPG, Blackpool 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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