Shrewsbury 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 38%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 6 as Shrewsbury welcome Charlton to The Croud Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at The Croud Meadow this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Charlton — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shrewsbury, 3 for Charlton and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 35% versus Charlton 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 41% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.048 / defence 1.186 | Charlton attack 0.900 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.171. Data: 51 Shrewsbury games / 51 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 27% | Charlton 35%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 40% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 27% | Charlton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Shrewsbury 1.32 / Charlton 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.048 / def 1.186 | Charlton attack 0.900 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Charlton kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Charlton part of?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 38% chance of winning, Charlton a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shrewsbury and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Record (6 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 2 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 1.05x the league average against Charlton's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.77
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.57
1.25
Charlton xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.25 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 9D 28L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 14W 21D 16L from 51 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.00 PPG, Charlton on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (9W 3D 13L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 12D 9L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.35 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 69%.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 14W 9D 28L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Charlton have gone 14W 21D 16L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Charlton away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.20 PPG; Charlton away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 40%, Charlton 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shrewsbury) and 36% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 40% of games; Charlton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 68% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 36% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Charlton tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against Charlton attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 27% | Charlton 35%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 41%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.00 PPG, Charlton 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.