Cambridge United 1-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Cledara Abbey Stadium to face Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United at Cledara Abbey Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Burton Albion (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cambridge United, 2 for Burton Albion and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 35% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 37% | Burton Albion 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.54 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.892 / defence 1.112 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Cambridge United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Cambridge United games / 57 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 45% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 30%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Burton Albion 3.33. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 50% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 45% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Cambridge United 1.54 / Burton Albion 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.892 / def 1.112 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Burton Albion xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Burton Albion kick off?
Cambridge United vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Cambridge United 1 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion part of?
Cambridge United vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 45% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cambridge United and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Burton Albion?
Record (6 meetings): Cambridge United 2W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 2W.
What form are Cambridge United and Burton Albion in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.89) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.90x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.99
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.76
1.22
Burton Albion xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.22 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Cambridge United have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 13D 30L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 12W 14D 31L from 57 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cambridge United against 0.88 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambridge United have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 9D 14L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.91 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 14W 13D 30L in their last 57 games (0.96 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 14D 31L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Burton Albion away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.25 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
2
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Burton Albion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Burton Albion 2-1 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 39%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cambridge United) and 57% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United have failed to score in 39% of games; Burton Albion in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cambridge United's recent games and 57% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambridge United edge out Burton Albion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Burton Albion 1-0 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.54 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 45% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 30%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 37%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.96 PPG, Burton Albion 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.