Burton Albion 1-2 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Exeter City meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Pirelli Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Exeter City (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Exeter City have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Exeter City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Exeter City — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 45% versus Exeter City 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 48% | Exeter City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.92 xG and Exeter City 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.686 / defence 1.240 | Exeter City attack 0.796 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.131. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Burton Albion games / 65 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 40%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Exeter City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Exeter City 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Burton Albion 0.92 / Exeter City 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.686 / def 1.240 | Exeter City attack 0.796 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Exeter City xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Exeter City kick off?
Burton Albion vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Burton Albion 1 - 2 Exeter City.
Where is Burton Albion vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Exeter City part of?
Burton Albion vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 30% chance of winning, Exeter City a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Burton Albion and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
Record (4 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 0 | Exeter City 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Exeter City in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Exeter City (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (0.80x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
30%
3.37
31%
3.26
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.04
1.12
Exeter City xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.12 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 14W 16D 35L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Exeter City's form line: 24W 13D 28L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Exeter City are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 0.94 PPG from 32 outings (8W 6D 18L).
On the road, Exeter City have gone 13W 3D 16L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 0.97 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 16D 35L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 24W 13D 28L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Exeter City away?
Exeter City's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.94 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Exeter City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
3
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Exeter City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 47%, Exeter City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 53% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 41% of games; Exeter City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Exeter City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 38% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 53% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Exeter City tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Burton Albion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.92 xG and Exeter City 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Exeter City outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.69 / defence 1.24 against Exeter City attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 40%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 48%, Exeter City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Exeter City's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.