West Brom 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Sunderland meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 40. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
West Brom's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at The Hawthorns this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for West Brom, 1.70 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: West Brom 1W, Sunderland 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 51% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 40% | Sunderland 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.41 xG and Sunderland 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.076 / defence 0.870 | Sunderland attack 1.077 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.013. Data: 85 West Brom games / 85 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 48% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 25%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 4.00. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 50% | Sunderland 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 48% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG West Brom 1.41 / Sunderland 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.076 / def 0.870 | Sunderland attack 1.077 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: West Brom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sunderland xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Sunderland kick off?
West Brom vs Sunderland kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Sunderland?
West Brom 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is West Brom vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Sunderland part of?
West Brom vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 48% chance of winning, Sunderland a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both West Brom and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Sunderland?
Record (5 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 3W.
What form are West Brom and Sunderland in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.08x) against West Brom's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.69
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.35
0.95
Sunderland xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are West Brom and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for West Brom and 0.95 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Brom come into this having played 85 games, going 33W 31D 21L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.51 PPG from 85 outings (36W 20D 29L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for West Brom against 1.51 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
West Brom's home form reads 23W 13D 6L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.26 points per game from 42 outings (14W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Sunderland in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 33W 31D 21L in their last 85 games (1.53 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 36W 20D 29L in their last 85 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Sunderland away?
West Brom's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.95 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.26 PPG.
Have West Brom or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
West Brom
1
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Sunderland have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when West Brom 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 36%, Sunderland 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (West Brom) and 43% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Sunderland in 31%; West Brom have failed to score in 26% of games; Sunderland in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of West Brom's recent matches and 48% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of West Brom's recent games and 43% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Sunderland tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat West Brom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat West Brom 0-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.41 xG and Sunderland 0.95 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Sunderland attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 48% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 25%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.53 PPG, Sunderland 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.