West Brom vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Derby travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 April 2027, 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: West Brom 1.60 PPG, Derby 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Derby have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for West Brom.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Derby have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derby in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 54% versus Derby 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 48% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.39 xG and Derby 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.022 / defence 0.909 | Derby attack 1.092 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 50 West Brom games / 50 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 36% | Draw 33% | Derby 31%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Derby 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 36% | Draw 33% | Derby 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG West Brom 1.39 / Derby 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.022 / def 0.909 | Derby attack 1.092 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: West Brom (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Derby xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Derby kick off?
West Brom vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Wednesday 7 April 2027 at The Hawthorns.
Where is West Brom vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Derby part of?
West Brom vs Derby is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 36% chance of winning, Derby a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both West Brom and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 2 | Derby 4W.
What form are West Brom and Derby in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.02x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.07
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.69
1.30
Derby xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are West Brom and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for West Brom and 1.30 for Derby, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Brom come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 15D 20L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.46 PPG from 50 outings (21W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.20 PPG, Derby on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Brom's home form reads 9W 11D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (11W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.44 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Derby in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Derby away?
West Brom's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.52 PPG; Derby away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
West Brom
2
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Derby have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Derby 1-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 56%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (West Brom) and 64% (Derby).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of West Brom's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of West Brom's recent games and 64% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Derby tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derby in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.