Sunderland 3-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Plymouth travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland in Championship (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sunderland stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Plymouth have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.40 PPG, Plymouth 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sunderland have won 1, Plymouth 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Sunderland 0–2 Plymouth — a Plymouth win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 55% versus Plymouth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 53% | Plymouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.55 xG and Plymouth 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.047 / defence 0.990 | Plymouth attack 0.758 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.197. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Sunderland's last 76 games and Plymouth's last 29.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 52% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 22%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.91 | Draw 3.89 | Plymouth 4.58. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 50% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 52% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Sunderland 1.55 / Plymouth 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.047 / def 0.990 | Plymouth attack 0.758 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Plymouth kick off?
Sunderland vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Sunderland 3 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Sunderland vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Plymouth part of?
Sunderland vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 52% chance of winning, Plymouth a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sunderland and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Sunderland vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.05x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 76 games and Plymouth's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.89
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.44
0.90
Plymouth xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.90 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland come into this having played 75 games, going 31W 18D 26L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.83 PPG from 75 outings (40W 17D 18L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.48 PPG, Plymouth on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sunderland's home form reads 17W 7D 13L across their last 37 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 37 away games (12W 13D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.73 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 31W 18D 26L in their last 75 games (1.48 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 40W 17D 18L in their last 75 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Plymouth away?
Sunderland's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.57 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plymouth in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Plymouth?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Sunderland 2-2 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 57%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sunderland) and 57% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Plymouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sunderland's games and 60% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sunderland and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sunderland's matches and 57% of Plymouth's.
Do Sunderland and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 68% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Plymouth 3-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.55 xG and Plymouth 0.90 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Plymouth attack 0.76 / defence 1.05, drawn from 76/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 52% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 22%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 53%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.48 PPG, Plymouth 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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