Hull City 0-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Swansea away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Hull City's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Swansea 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 48% | Swansea 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.84 xG and Swansea 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.017 / defence 0.922 | Swansea attack 1.094 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.197. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Hull City games / 76 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 52% | Draw 23% | Swansea 25%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Swansea 4.00. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Swansea 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 52% | Draw 23% | Swansea 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Hull City 1.84 / Swansea 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.017 / def 0.922 | Swansea attack 1.094 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Hull City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Swansea xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Swansea kick off?
Hull City vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Hull City 0 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Hull City vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Swansea part of?
Hull City vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 52% chance of winning, Swansea a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hull City and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
Record (5 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 3 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Hull City and Swansea in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Swansea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.02x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.09x) against Hull City's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 75/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.37
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.05
1.21
Swansea xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
4%
25.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Hull City and 1.21 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 75 games, going 27W 22D 26L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.31 PPG from 75 outings (26W 20D 29L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Hull City against 1.31 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 15W 10D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.19 points per game from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.41 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea in 61%.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Swansea in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 27W 22D 26L in their last 75 games (1.37 PPG), while Swansea have gone 26W 20D 29L in their last 75 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Swansea away?
Hull City's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.49 PPG; Swansea away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
4
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Swansea have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 51%, Swansea 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 62% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Hull City's games and 65% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 62% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Swansea tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Swansea in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.84 xG and Swansea 1.21 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Swansea attack 1.09 / defence 1.29, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 52% | Draw 23% | Swansea 25%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 48%, Swansea 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.37 PPG, Swansea 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.