Plymouth 0-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Stoke City meet at Home Park in Championship, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Plymouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 2W 3D 5L at Home Park — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stoke City have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stoke City's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Stoke City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Stoke City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stoke City half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 53% versus Stoke City 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 53% | Stoke City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.51 xG and Stoke City 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.938 / defence 1.001 | Stoke City attack 0.863 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.174. Data: 49 Plymouth games / 49 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 48% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 25%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Stoke City 4.00. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 30% | Stoke City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 48% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Plymouth 1.51 / Stoke City 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.938 / def 1.001 | Stoke City attack 0.863 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stoke City xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Stoke City kick off?
Plymouth vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Stoke City?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Plymouth vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Stoke City part of?
Plymouth vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 48% chance of winning, Stoke City a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Plymouth and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stoke City?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Stoke City in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Stoke City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.94x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.86x) against Plymouth's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.73
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.53
1.01
Stoke City xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.01 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Plymouth's recent record stands at 13W 14D 22L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stoke City, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 22L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Plymouth against 1.20 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stoke City's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Stoke City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Stoke City away?
Plymouth's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.50 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stoke City won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stoke City?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Stoke City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Stoke City 0-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 54%, Stoke City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 46% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 46% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Stoke City tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.51 xG and Stoke City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Stoke City attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 48% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Stoke City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 53%, Stoke City 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stoke City's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.08 PPG, Stoke City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.