Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 37 as Middlesbrough welcome Charlton to Riverside Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Middlesbrough have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Riverside Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Middlesbrough are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Middlesbrough, 0 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Middlesbrough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play tendencies (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 52% versus Charlton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 50% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.60 xG and Charlton 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.080 / defence 0.700 | Charlton attack 0.784 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.215. Middlesbrough's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 82 Middlesbrough games / 36 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 59% | Draw 27% | Charlton 14%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Middlesbrough (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Middlesbrough 40% | Charlton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 59% | Draw 27% | Charlton 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Middlesbrough 1.60 / Charlton 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.080 / def 0.700 | Charlton attack 0.784 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Charlton xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Charlton kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Charlton part of?
Middlesbrough vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 59% chance of winning, Charlton a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Middlesbrough and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Middlesbrough 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Charlton in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Middlesbrough's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.66
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.26
0.67
Charlton xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
3%
34.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.67 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Middlesbrough's recent record stands at 38W 19D 25L from 82 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 35W 22D 25L across 82 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.62 PPG, Charlton on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Middlesbrough have managed 21W 11D 8L from 40 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 12W 12D 16L across 40 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.21 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Charlton in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 38W 19D 25L in their last 82 games (1.62 PPG), while Charlton have gone 35W 22D 25L in their last 82 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Charlton away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.85 PPG; Charlton away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Charlton in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Middlesbrough and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Middlesbrough
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 45%, Charlton 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Middlesbrough) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Charlton in 32%; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 28% of games; Charlton in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 42% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Charlton tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Charlton in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Middlesbrough 0-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.60 xG and Charlton 0.67 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.08 / defence 0.70 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 59% | Draw 27% | Charlton 14%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 50%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.62 PPG, Charlton 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.