Derby 1-2 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derby at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 4 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wrexham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Derby 0W, Wrexham 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Wrexham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 42% | Wrexham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.03 xG and Wrexham 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.838 / defence 1.067 | Wrexham attack 0.823 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.115. Data: 71 Derby games / 25 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 36% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 33%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Wrexham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 70% | Wrexham 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 36% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Derby 1.03 / Wrexham 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.838 / def 1.067 | Wrexham attack 0.823 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Derby (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wrexham xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Wrexham kick off?
Derby vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Wrexham?
Derby 1 - 2 Wrexham.
Where is Derby vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Wrexham part of?
Derby vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 36% chance of winning, Wrexham a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Derby and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wrexham?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Wrexham 0W.
What form are Derby and Wrexham in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Wrexham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derby's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.82x) against Derby's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 71/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
36%
2.82
32%
3.13
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Derby xG
Total xG
2.01
0.98
Wrexham xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Derby and 0.98 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 19D 30L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wrexham sit at 1.82 PPG from 71 outings (36W 21D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Derby's home form reads 12W 10D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Wrexham have taken 1.51 points per game from 35 outings (14W 11D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.45 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 22W 19D 30L in their last 71 games (1.20 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 36W 21D 14L in their last 71 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.31 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Derby or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Wrexham in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
1
Draws
1
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Wrexham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Derby 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 46%, Wrexham 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Derby and 31% for Wrexham.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Wrexham in 43%; Derby have failed to score in 29% of games; Wrexham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Derby's recent matches and 43% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Derby's recent games and 31% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Wrexham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.03 xG and Wrexham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Wrexham attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 36% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 33%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 42%, Wrexham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.