Derby 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 12 as Derby welcome QPR to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 2W 5D 3L at Pride Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
QPR — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour QPR — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Derby, 3 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 0–4 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
QPR trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus QPR 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 37% | QPR 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.28 xG and QPR 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.913 / defence 0.984 | QPR attack 1.070 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.146. Data: 57 Derby games / 57 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 38% | Draw 27% | QPR 35%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | QPR 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | QPR 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 38% | Draw 27% | QPR 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.28 / QPR 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.913 / def 0.984 | QPR attack 1.070 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.21
QPR xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs QPR kick off?
Derby vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs QPR?
Derby 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Derby vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs QPR part of?
Derby vs QPR is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 38% chance of winning, QPR a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 3W.
What form are Derby and QPR in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. QPR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.69
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Derby xG
Total xG
2.48
1.21
QPR xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Derby and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Derby and 1.21 for QPR, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 15W 16D 26L from 57 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 21L across 57 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.07 PPG, QPR on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.19 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and QPR in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 games (1.07 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or QPR away?
Derby's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.31 PPG; QPR away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, QPR have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 38%, QPR 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Derby) and 48% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 34% of games; QPR in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Derby's recent matches and 59% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Derby's recent games and 48% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and QPR tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, QPR in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat QPR 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.28 xG and QPR 1.21 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against QPR attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 38% | Draw 27% | QPR 35%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, QPR 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.07 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.