Burnley vs Preston – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Preston travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 6D 4L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burnley at 0.70 PPG versus Preston's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Burnley have won 1, Preston 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Preston trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 65% and Preston 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 55% | Preston 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.78 xG and Preston 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.852 / defence 1.200 | Preston attack 0.822 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Preston bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Burnley games / 57 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 49% | Draw 23% | Preston 28%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Preston 3.57. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 80% | Preston 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 49% | Draw 23% | Preston 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Burnley 1.78 / Preston 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.852 / def 1.200 | Preston attack 0.822 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Burnley (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Preston xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Preston kick off?
Burnley vs Preston is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Preston part of?
Burnley vs Preston is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 49% chance of winning, Preston a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burnley and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Preston?
Record (4 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 3 | Preston 0W.
What form are Burnley and Preston in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Preston (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.31
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.07
1.29
Preston xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Burnley and 1.29 for Preston, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 49 games, going 5W 15D 29L for 0.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.04 PPG from 49 outings (13W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 2W 11D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.12 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Preston in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Preston in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 15D 29L in their last 49 games (0.61 PPG), while Preston have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.68 PPG; Preston away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Preston specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burnley
3
Draws
0
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Preston?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Preston have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Preston 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Preston?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 56%, Preston 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Burnley) and 60% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 36% of games; Preston in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Burnley's games and 64% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burnley's recent games and 60% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Preston tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Preston in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.