Zbrojovka Brno 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host Bohemians 1905 at ADAX INVEST Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zbrojovka Brno's home record at ADAX INVEST Arena: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Czech Liga appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ADAX INVEST Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Zbrojovka Brno) versus 1.80 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zbrojovka Brno register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Bohemians 1905 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 60% and Bohemians 1905 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 80% | Bohemians 1905 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.967 / defence 1.336 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.028 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.359. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Zbrojovka Brno games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 21% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 55%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 67% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 21% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.08 / Bohemians 1905 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.967 / def 1.336 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.028 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Bohemians 1905 xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Zbrojovka Brno 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 21% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
21%
4.82
25%
4.07
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.95
1.87
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
3%
31.21
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.87 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 1D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
From 2 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 60%, Bohemians 1905 at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Zbrojovka Brno and 60% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 80% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zbrojovka Brno 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zbrojovka Brno 1-2 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.87 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.03 / defence 0.78, drawn from 5/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 21% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 55%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 80%, Bohemians 1905 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zbrojovka Brno managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.