Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Teplice against 1.70 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 3W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.49 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.943 / defence 0.978 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.876 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Teplice games / 43 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 26%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Mlada Boleslav 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Mlada Boleslav 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Teplice 1.49 / Mlada Boleslav 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.943 / def 0.978 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.876 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 5W.
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.88x) against Teplice's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.27
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.59
1.10
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Teplice and 1.10 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 15D 17L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (16W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Teplice against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 8W 7D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.48 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 16D 16L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.29 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Teplice or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 58% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.