Teplice 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Teplice have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.50 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, FK Jablonec edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Teplice 0–3 FK Jablonec — a FK Jablonec win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus FK Jablonec 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | FK Jablonec 46%). Note also that FK Jablonec surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.928 / defence 0.923 | FK Jablonec attack 1.017 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.152. Data: built from Teplice's last 57 games and FK Jablonec's last 57.
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.29 | Draw 3.35 | FK Jablonec 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Teplice 1.44 / FK Jablonec 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.928 / def 0.923 | FK Jablonec attack 1.017 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Teplice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Teplice 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Teplice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Teplice and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.02x) against Teplice's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 57 games and FK Jablonec's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.35
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.53
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Teplice and 1.08 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 15D 27L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
FK Jablonec's form line: 21W 20D 20L from 61 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Teplice against 1.36 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 8D 10L).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 10D 13L from their last 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.44 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Teplice vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 games (1.18 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 21W 20D 20L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or FK Jablonec away?
Teplice's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.41 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Teplice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 4-1 Teplice on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Teplice 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, FK Jablonec 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 41% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 45% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 41% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Teplice's recent matches and 66% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.18 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.