FK Jablonec 0-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 2 for Sigma Olomouc and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Sigma Olomouc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Sigma Olomouc 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.338 / defence 0.817 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.121 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.123. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 FK Jablonec games / 56 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 4.55. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 1.68 / Sigma Olomouc 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.338 / def 0.817 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.121 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 52% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.12x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.89
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.71
1.03
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
23.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.03 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 21W 17D 20L from 58 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 25L across 58 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.29 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 15W 8D 6L from 29 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.41 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 67%.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 games (1.38 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 12D 25L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.83 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.14 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 52%, Sigma Olomouc 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FK Jablonec's games and 66% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 27, as FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.