Slovácko 0-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians 1905 — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Slovácko, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 5–2 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 49% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | Bohemians 1905 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.25 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.874 / defence 0.922 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.862 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.106. Data: 32 Slovácko games / 32 Bohemians 1905 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 3.85. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 42% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 70% | Bohemians 1905 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Slovácko 1.25 / Bohemians 1905 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.874 / def 0.922 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.862 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovácko 0 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Record (5 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.45
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.13
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.88 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 9D 16L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 10W 12D 15L from 37 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 6D 8L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.97 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 10W 12D 15L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovácko's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.28 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
3
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 56%, Bohemians 1905 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Slovácko) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Slovácko's games and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 3, as Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.25 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 26%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Bohemians 1905 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.