Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Slavia Praha's 2.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Mlada Boleslav's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Slavia Praha have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Mlada Boleslav managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 48% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 64% | Mlada Boleslav 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.72 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.342 / defence 0.872 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.943 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Slavia Praha games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 22%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Mlada Boleslav 4.55. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 40% | Mlada Boleslav 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Slavia Praha 1.72 / Mlada Boleslav 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.342 / def 0.872 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.943 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mlada Boleslav xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha 4 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 52% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (5 meetings): Slavia Praha 4W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.34) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.94x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.84
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.78
1.06
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
25.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.06 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha come into this having played 66 games, going 47W 13D 6L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.29 PPG from 66 outings (22W 19D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Slavia Praha's home form reads 29W 3D 1L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.36 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 47W 13D 6L in their last 66 games (2.33 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.73 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 4-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 46%, Mlada Boleslav 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Slavia Praha and 52% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Slavia Praha's matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 4-0 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.72 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.06 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.87 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 22%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 64%, Mlada Boleslav 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.