Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 38%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Conference League Play-offs - Final as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 1 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 57% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.062 / defence 1.147 | Hradec Králové attack 0.753 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.290. Hradec Králové's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 31%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 70% | Hradec Králové 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.26 / Hradec Králové 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.062 / def 1.147 | Hradec Králové attack 0.753 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.06x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.29
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.37
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.11 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 22W 19D 26L from 67 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 26L across 67 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.27 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 12W 11D 10L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 11W 10D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 25W 16D 26L in their last 67 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.42 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 64%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Mlada Boleslav) and 46% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 1.11 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Hradec Králové attack 0.75 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 31%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 57%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.27 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.