Slavia Praha 4-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slavia Praha at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.30 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Slavia Praha edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Slavia Praha 1–1 FK Jablonec — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 51% versus FK Jablonec 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | FK Jablonec 53%). Note also that FK Jablonec surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Slavia Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.113 / defence 0.822 | FK Jablonec attack 0.840 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.199. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 48 games and FK Jablonec's last 49.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 18%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.71 | Draw 4.20 | FK Jablonec 5.66. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 50% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Slavia Praha 1.72 / FK Jablonec 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.113 / def 0.822 | FK Jablonec attack 0.840 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha 4 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 59% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.84x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 48 games and FK Jablonec's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.20
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.55
0.83
FK Jablonec xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
31.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.83 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 38W 9D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FK Jablonec's form line: 14W 18D 21L from 53 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.74 PPG from their last 27 home games (24W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.32 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 7D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.26 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 62%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slavia Praha (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 38W 9D 6L in their last 53 games (2.32 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.74 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won FK Jablonec 0-5 Slavia Praha on 31 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: FK Jablonec 0-5 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 48%, FK Jablonec 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Slavia Praha and 59% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Slavia Praha's matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 74% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out FK Jablonec 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 4-3 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 0.83 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against FK Jablonec attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 18%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, FK Jablonec 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.