FK Jablonec 0-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Karviná (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 1W 1D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.44 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FK Jablonec 2W, Karviná 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Karviná — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 59% versus Karviná 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 35% | Karviná 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.80 xG and Karviná 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.019 / defence 1.060 | Karviná attack 0.784 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.225. Data: 48 FK Jablonec games / 17 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 23% | Karviná 21%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Karviná 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Karviná 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 23% | Karviná 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 1.80 / Karviná 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.019 / def 1.060 | Karviná attack 0.784 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Karviná xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 56% chance of winning, Karviná a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 2 | Karviná 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Karviná (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.02) and Karviná's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.78x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 48/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.33
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.82
1.02
Karviná xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
28.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.02 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 7D 6L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (4W 2D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.82 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Karviná have gone 4W 2D 11L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.50 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 75%, Karviná 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FK Jablonec's games and 50% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karviná in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Karviná finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.80 xG and Karviná 1.02 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Karviná landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Karviná attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 23% | Karviná 21%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 35%, Karviná 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karviná's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.12 PPG, Karviná 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.