Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Zbrojovka Brno to Andruv Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv Stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.60 (Zbrojovka Brno). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Zbrojovka Brno and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 67% versus Zbrojovka Brno 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 67% | Zbrojovka Brno 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.72 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.113 / defence 0.994 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.872 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.191. Data: 42 Sigma Olomouc games / 12 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 28% | Zbrojovka Brno 21%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Zbrojovka Brno 4.76. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Zbrojovka Brno 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Andruv Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 28% | Zbrojovka Brno 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.72 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.113 / def 0.994 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.872 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Zbrojovka Brno xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Andruv Stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Andruv Stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 51% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 0 | Zbrojovka Brno 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.11x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.55
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.75
1.03
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
4%
27.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.03 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 6W 3D 3L from 12 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 4L across 12 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.75 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.00 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sigma Olomouc have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2026, when Sigma Olomouc won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Zbrojovka Brno specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
0
Draws
1
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 40%, Zbrojovka Brno 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sigma Olomouc and 40% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 40% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 40% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zbrojovka Brno.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Zbrojovka Brno 3-0 at Andruv Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.72 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.03 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zbrojovka Brno landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 28% | Zbrojovka Brno 21%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 67%, Zbrojovka Brno 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.75 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.