Plzen 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Plzen, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Baník Ostrava — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 3–1 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 55% versus Baník Ostrava 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 57% | Baník Ostrava 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.53 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.416 / defence 1.159 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.244 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.123. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Baník Ostrava have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Plzen games / 55 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Plzen 1.53 / Baník Ostrava 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.416 / def 1.159 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.244 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Baník Ostrava xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 35% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Record (6 meetings): Plzen 4W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.24x) against Plzen's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
35%
2.83
25%
3.95
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.62
Baník Ostrava xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Plzen and 1.62 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 37W 12D 11L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 30W 10D 20L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for Plzen against 1.67 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.27 PPG from 30 outings (21W 5D 4L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 14W 5D 11L from 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.63 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 37W 12D 11L in their last 60 games (2.05 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 30W 10D 20L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.27 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 57%, Baník Ostrava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Plzen) and 57% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Plzen's recent matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Plzen's matches and 57% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Plzen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.53 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.62 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.42 / defence 1.16 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, Baník Ostrava 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.05 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.