Mlada Boleslav 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 3 sees Slovácko travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Mlada Boleslav. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Lokotrans Aréna this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Mlada Boleslav are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 2 for Slovácko and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Slovácko winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Slovácko trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Slovácko 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Slovácko 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.76 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.062 / defence 1.162 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Slovácko lead the H2H ledger, but Mlada Boleslav carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Slovácko 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.76 / Slovácko 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.062 / def 1.162 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Slovácko xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 44% chance of winning, Slovácko a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.06) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.98
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.22
1.46
Slovácko xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.46 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 22W 19D 23L from 64 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 24L across 64 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.33 PPG, Slovácko on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 12W 11D 8L from 31 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 9W 8D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 19D 23L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 23W 17D 24L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Slovácko away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.52 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2024, when Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Slovácko have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Slovácko 0-3 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 68%, Slovácko 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Mlada Boleslav) and 48% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 48% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 48% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.76 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Slovácko 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG, Slovácko 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.